2019, 05 December
Asset Allocation Outlook December
The MSCI global equity index noted gains for the third month in a row in November. A difference was discernible though between industrialised countries, which saw prices rise, and the slight price decreases in emerging markets. Capital market yields rose further, while the US saw an end to falling yields at the short end of the yield curve. This caused the spread on long-term and short-term yields to widen, which is a positive sign for the business cycle. The reasons behind the positive mood on the markets continue to be hopes of a trade agreement between the US and China, the diminishing risk of a hard Brexit and the bottoming-out of a number of leading economic indicators. We have reduced our cash position by expanding our overweight in emerging market debt. Our underweight in equities has been kept unchanged, however, as we still believe that the equity markets have priced in an excessively positive scenario for corporate earnings.