News & Knowledge

Asset Allocation Outlook December

It’s been clear for quite a while that we’re living in exceptional times. Economic data had already rewritten records, for both contraction and growth. Yet that didn’t stop equities making their contribution in what was a spectacular November. The MSCI global equity index climbed by the record amount of 12.2% within a single calendar month, while the increase of 18.1% to the EURO STOXX 50 index - which has been around since 1986 - was another record. The upturn in the US S&P500 was less spectacular at 10.8%, but this index has already performed much better than its European counterpart this year.

Dividend Update: All set for a style reversal?

It’s been a hard year for the value stocks that our dividend strategy typically invests in. Growth stocks have outperformed them this year (as they did in 2019), such that the valuation gap between the two has hit a historical high – growth stocks had become 230% more expensive than value firms by the end of September based on a composite of four valuation measures – P/E, P/CF, P/B and dividend yield.

Dividend update videos

Dividend is the backbone of our investment strategy. Providing a consistent return to shareholders urges companies to carefully manage their cashflows and balance sheet, and scrutinize their investment decisions. As the economy has come to an abrupt stop due to the COVID-19 crisis, regulators, companies and even investors are questioning whether it is prudent to return cash to shareholders when the outlook is filled with uncertainty. We agree, some companies will need all their available resources to weather the crisis. Many others however, are according to our opinion in good shape financially to see this through. Some companies are simply not impacted much directly.

Sustainable Equity Strategy: Market update

A positive reading on a potential COVID-19 vaccine was released on Monday November the 9th: Pfizer and BioNTech said their vaccine candidate proved to be more than 90% effective in the first 94 subjects who were infected by coronavirus and developed at least one symptom. This is significantly better than 50% efficacy threshold FDA established for approval. The companies noted no serious safety issues thus far and they remain on track to ask FDA for emergency use authorization by end of November. Dr. Fauci said Moderna vaccine may see similar results because it is also based on mRNA technology and told CNN it is "very likely" people will begin to be vaccinated before end of 2020.

Credit quarterly newsletter

Kempen’s Credit team immerses itself in the credit markets on a daily basis. As these markets can change rapidly, it’s vital for the team to be on top of all the latest developments, understand what’s going on and adjust its portfolios accordingly if necessary. The team receives regular enquiries from our clients about its views on the credit markets and where the best opportunities currently lie, so we publish a quarterly credit newsletter providing the team’s views on a topic of interest. In this edition, we talk about the real estate sector within the European credit markets. We discuss the growth of the market in recent years, the challenges facing the sector – which has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic – and the opportunities that are beginning to emerge as a result.

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Dividend Update: How we managed to minimise dividend cuts in our dividend strategy

We’ve been running our dividend strategy for over 20 years and experienced a number of periods in which companies have cut their dividends – the most obvious being the 2008-09 financial crisis, when several financial companies were forced to reduce their payouts.

Asset Allocation Outlook October

Last month we referred to the market wisdom that says there’s no point in investors coming back until September. This year it would certainly have been the wrong time to do so. Not only would investors have missed out on the gains of August, they’d have to digest a loss in September on top of that. At nearly 4%, the biggest loss was in the US. Europe and emerging markets noted a loss of about 2%, while Japan displayed a tiny plus of 0.5%.

Dividend Update: How uncertainty has led to an unprecedented opportunity for investors

Most investors have heard of America’s famed “FAANG” stocks – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google. Replace Netflix with Microsoft and we have by far the five biggest stocks in the S&P 500. In fact, they make up over 20% of that index – well above the 18% that the then-five-biggest stocks accounted for at the peak of the dot-com bubble back in 2000.
But what’s less well known is that Europe has its own version of the FAANG stocks – what Goldman Sachs has labelled the GRANOLAS, and are the 11 biggest stocks in Europe. They’re made up of Glaxosmithkline, Roche, ASML, Nestlé, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, L’Oréal, LVMH, AstraZeneca, SAP and Sanofi.