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Asset Allocation Outlook January

13 January 2020

There were of course significant differences: Japanese government bonds only yielded 1.7%, while US equities earned 31.6%. One notable asset class was emerging market debt listed in local currency. Since the launch of the global index for these bonds in 2003, this asset class has never posted a negative annual return. Yet past performances provide no guarantee for the future. A dip at the end of 2018, an enormous reversal in monetary policy in the US and Eurozone, hopes of a rapid economic recovery and a de-escalation of the trade war all contributed to the strong investment performance of 2019. A repeat of such positive conditions in 2020 is unlikely in our opinion. We believe that bond yields will rise further and that equity markets have priced in an excessively positive earnings scenario, but we are positive about emerging market debt. In our investment policy we have adjusted our regional equity allocation.  

Please see Kempen’s Asset Allocation Outlook for January. The highlights this month are: 

  • US foreign policy as capricious as ever
  • Economic picture largely unchanged
  • Bond yields and equities climb simultaneously
  • Equity rotation from US to Europe and emerging markets

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2020, 13 January

Asset Allocation Outlook

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Disclaimer
Kempen Capital Management N.V. (KCM) is licensed as a manager of various investment funds and to provide investment services and is subject to supervision by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. This information may not be construed as an offer and provides insufficient basis for an investment decision.

The Asset Allocation  Desk

Joost van Leenders
Ivo Kuiper

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