August was a very strong month for equities. The US market (S&P 500) posted the best August performance since 1986 and was up 7%. Global equities, as measured by the MSCI World Index, are now only slightly in negative territory for the year. The market continues to be driven by a small group of U.S. technology led companies. Their relentless rally is the main reason the broad market index has recovered sharply from the lows in March. This hides the fact that a large part of the market is still in negative territory for the year. Aided by a very accommodative monetary policy growth stocks continued to outperform value stocks in August, the valuation difference between the two continues to grow and is at level not seen before. This dispersion also takes place within the value universe, and this trend has been a headwind to our strategy year-to-date. However, we believe it also presents a great opportunity going forward. In August, the strategy had a strong month and was up sharply, also outperforming its benchmark, the MSCI World Value Index.

Strong performers this month were DeNa, First Pacific and Wood Group. Video-game maker DeNa reported better than expected results thanks to the strong game business and an increased contribution from their live streaming business. Conglomerate First Pacific published good H1 results, with an 8% dividend increase, and a meaningful improvement in the interest cover. First Pacific trades at a large discount to its current NAV. The discount is also large compared to the long-term average discount. Oil services company Wood Group was up sharply in August after reassuring results and a further improvement of its balance sheet. The oil-services company is benefiting from a well-diversified client base which helps ease the impact of the struggling upstream oil & gas sector that is one third of profits.

Weaker performers in August were Orange, Samsung and Cardinal Health. Telecom company Orange was weak without specific company news, perhaps the removal of Orange from the Euro Stoxx 50 index created some selling pressure. Samsung reported sector quarter results ahead of expectations, driven by growth in semiconductors, displays and consumer electronics but the shares had already gone up in anticipation of strong results. Pharmaceutical distribution company Cardinal Health published in line results, but the outlook was slightly disappointing, owing to incremental COVID-19-related headwinds.

There was no trading activity during the month.

The market continues to favor companies with short term earnings quality (health care, online retail etc.) rather than look at the potential to add value over the cycle. Given the uncertain outlook, part of that short-termism is certainly justified. However, it has resulted in a large gap in valuation in the market. While some companies appear priced for perfection, others look priced for depression. The dividend universe is overrepresented in the latter, presenting a very challenging environment for our strategy. We agree that several of the ‘quality’ companies can be very attractive long-term investments, and we have (had) our fair share in the portfolio over time. However, in our view these companies are not great investments at any price. Beyond that, signs of irrational exuberance are starting to appear in the market. Which seems to be driven by the return of the retail investor and a fear of missing out. After a decade of success for technology driven companies, we are now seeing ‘concept stocks’ from companies that have little more than a business plan being valued as if they will successfully create and conquer a new market in a matter of years with close to 100% certainty.

In our investment process, we spend a large portion of our time understanding where profitability should be on an over the cycle basis, as this is what determines the cash flows we will receive as a long-term shareholder. A firm may appear attractive based on its price to earnings ratio or other headline multiple, but if margins and/or revenue are high, this only gives you limited information about the future returns of an investment. In a diversified portfolio, we are always going to have individual names that disappoint or surprise to the upside. We believe that a value process of bottom up stock picking will lead to more winners than losers, as our long-term track record indicates. We continue to purchase our investments based on intrinsic value, while ensuring a margin of safety when we select our stocks. We are confident that the portfolio will show attractive risk return characteristics over the next 3 to 5 years. We continue to diligently execute our investment process. As is the case with every crisis, it also offers attractive new opportunities. We have already added several new attractive companies to the portfolio and are confident that we will find more.

Valuation dispersion between, and within regions and sectors have further increased this year and are now close to the peak of the technology. The value strategy trades at an exceptional discount versus the market. Historically, this has led to a strong relative performance on the medium term. Also, the absolute valuation of the strategy is compelling. In summary, the current environment offers the opportunity to buy a well-diversified portfolio with solid earnings power at an attractive valuation. In addition, ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) is fully incorporated in our investment process.