Kempen Outlook 2021

Every year we take a joint look at the future. We look at a number of themes that may significantly impact the economy and the financial markets.

Uncorrelated strategies

Remko van der Erf, Co-Head Alternative Strategies is an optimist. Whereas some investors are worried about the prospects for 2021, he mainly sees opportunity. That’s hardly surprising in a segment that tends to do well against a backdrop of volatility, diversity and restructurings. Van der Erf defines success as ‘positive returns with a low correlation’.

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The real estate market offers many opportunities to add value

Coronavirus has led to a considerable divergence in the fortunes of the different real estate sectors in 2020, but what should investors expect next year? We consider some of the trends to look out for.

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The economy is rapidly becoming sustainable and digital

What do our equity portfolio managers expect in 2021 and beyond? We spoke to the fund managers of our small-cap, dividend and sustainable equity strategies and our Global Impact Pool to find our. Optimism reigns, especially over the longer term : as they say, ‘We already hold tomorrow’s winners in the portfolio.’

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Macro and Markets

When writing an outlook, it’s always tempting to say there’s a great deal of uncertainty. After all, the future is always uncertain. But where we normally still have a grip on relationships between economic variables such as growth, inflation, interest rates or valuations, now we’ve got the coronavirus to contend with on top of all that. 

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Corona scenarios

When it became clear that the coronavirus was morphing from a local Chinese epidemic into a global pandemic in early 2020, it was virtually impossible to forecast its exact impact on the global economy. For this reason, we set out a number of different possible scenarios of what might happen, which also considered the potential investment opportunities that might arise as a result. The scenarios ranged from one of rapid recovery to another of long-term malaise. All, of course, came with the necessary caveats.

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Disclaimer

The views expressed in this document may be subject to change at any given time, without prior notice. Kempen Capital Management N.V. (KCM ) has no obligation to update the contents of this document. As asset manager KCM may have investments, generally for the benefit of third parties, in financial instruments mentioned in this document and it may at any time decide to execute buy or sell transactions in these financial instruments.

The information in this document is solely for your information. This article does not contain investment advice, no investment recommendation, no research, or an invitation to buy or sell any financial instruments, and should not be interpreted as such. This document is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such.

The views expressed herein are our current views as of the date appearing on this document. This document has been produced independently of the company and the views contained herein are entirely those of KCM.

KCM is licensed as a manager of various UCITS and AIFs and to provide investment services and is subject to supervision by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets.